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>Ichikawa also scrutinised a measure known as the “confidence interval”. Statistical analyses always carry an inherent uncertainty around a particular result – such as the size of this effect – and the confidence interval expresses the possible range of those values. Ichikawa noticed that the confidence in in Ueda’s paper was extremely wide: 14-97%. “Statistically very unstable,” he says. This means the actual effect could have been as low as a 14% reduction – still a significant change, but not nearly as big as the media coverage had suggested.
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