Originariamente l’ho scritto come un rispondere su un altro thread, ma penso che valga la pena di snocciolarlo:
[The petrochemical industry of Azerbaijan as a percentage of their economy is] già sceso al 90% in circa 3 anni. E [if it's set to run out in 2050, that's still] una cronologia di 25 anni.
Se si eliminano i prodotti petrolchimici (e tutti i sottoprodotti per un valore complessivo di 36 miliardi di $/anno), le loro esportazioni rimanenti (3 miliardi di $/anno) valgono ancora più della metà delle esportazioni totali dell’Armenia (5,9 miliardi di $/anno). Lasciate che questo sedimenti.
E immaginate cosa potrebbe fare anche solo una piccola percentuale di quei 36 miliardi di dollari di sole esportazioni petrolchimiche (di nuovo, 6 volte le esportazioni totali dell’Armenia) in un periodo di 25 anni, se reinvestita in altri settori.
A parità di condizioni (e non lo sono, perché stanno già iniziando a diversificare), si tratta di 1 trilione di $ contro i 150 miliardi dell’Armenia. O in altre parole, 850 miliardi di $ in più con cui devono giocare nel corso di 25 anni.
Dire che siamo in uno svantaggio economico schiacciante è un eufemismo. Abbiamo un quantità di recuperare il ritardo da fare…
Anche le esportazioni di risorse non naturali dell’Azerbaijan sono più elevate (~$4 miliardi) rispetto a quelle dell’Armenia (~$3,6 miliardi), quindi l’idea che… "vincita" a causa della scomparsa improvvisa del petrolio, è anch’essa una credenza errata.
Quindi, questa idea che la situazione cambierà quando il petrolio finirà, non è altro che un pio desiderio?
Non lo dico per essere disfattista. Al contrario. Penso che questa mentalità generi compiacenza. Come se non toccasse a noi fare qualcosa, aspetteremo con la mentalità d’assedio. Corruzione qui, petrolio là. Dobbiamo liberarci da questa mentalità e tornare sobri al lavoro che deve essere fatto per cambiare le cose.
Fonte: Tutti i numeri sono stati presi dai dati dell’OEC per Armenia E AzerbaigianMa molto achkachapov dato che sono al telefono.
Modifica per aggiungere: per favore fornisci le fonti per i tuoi numeri. Sono davvero curioso e voglio evitare che questo diventi un casino di verità reali e solo stime inventate per supportare le tue opinioni.
di rudetopeace
4 Comments
100% on board with you. The only thing youa are not taking into account is the fact that Europe doesn’t take such drastic measures against Az for one reason and one reason only, oil. Once that is gone, they won’t really have much use for the western world (given that they are still pro Russian and corrupt from inside out).
What is the point of this? It doesnt matter regardless since Azerbaijan has 80.000.000 state as an ally.
It is painly obvious that Armenia needs to get outside of the box in order to survive, but that means that we should not sit on one place and accept every shit coming at us either. If Israel had such attitude, it probably wouldn’t exist now.
We need to decisively choose the West as our ally without expecting them to help us out of pity. We need to get on board with our diaspora and just plainly send them home by force, like Israel did with jews. WTF are Armos doing now in fucking Syria, Lebanon and Russia? This is state policy failure. We need to liberalize our market, our taxes are insane compared to Georgia. We need to rely less on cars.
I think there are a couple problems with your analysis:
1. Armenian exports in 2023 were 8.55 billion. azeri in 2023 25 billion of which only 3 billion were non oil and gas. (2022 was a good year for gas prices).
2. azeri exports of oil are decreasing not remaining stable. So while there is a continued production of oil it will not take 25 years to run out and even if it did, it would be a nearly negligable amount in only a third of that time. I am not familiar with the source or the exact numbers (referenced at 7.4% for 2022-2023 https://www.intellinews.com/azerbaijan-s-oil-is-in-decline-but-gas-is-growing-309138/) but I have seen roughly 9-10% decline in production yoy. This suggests that the production will be half what it is today in only about 5-6 years and a quarter of that in 10-12 years. Considering that crude oil is the major funder of the azeri budget, that will be a signficant loss.
3. The question isnt about azerbaijan becoming bankrupt, they have nearly a 100 billion dollars in their reserve fund. They can last a few years even without oil and gas (government budget wise), the question is that this kind of finanical decline will ultimately mean that more people will need to access social services, azeri government and the azeri government will only be able to maintain their social supports. Their society is already feeling the impact of inflation with many feeling extremely hurt by rising fuel and transportation costs if this continues to get worse they will have to decide between maintaining an expensive army (which is their leverage) or holding control over thier society (domestic leverage)
4. Losing oil isn’t just about income, its about leverage and international influence. Oil is a large reason that azerbaijan occupies any signficant place in international politics, without it they are much more seceptible to foreign influence and will have a harder time convincing international partners to turn blind eyes.
5. The question isnt just about how long they will last without oil and gas, the question is also how will they replace the oil and gas market with something else? There is literally nothing that can grow within a decade to replace oil and gas in their market even with billions of funding (which they dont really have, their huge income goes to a number of places already, its not like they have billions they can spend, it has to come from somewhere and its gets smaller and smaller each year, keep in mind they are also supposed to be reconstructing NK ie. billions of dollars yearly for ghost towns).
I agree that the Armenian authorities should be weary of relying on the oil collapse of azerbaijan, but the truth is that they are in a much more dire situation than is appearant. The reality is that in 5 years they could discover more oil, and in 5 years, they could be broke, in 5 years we could be the richest in the region after several large investments and technological breakthroughs. 5 years 10 years, its a long time, we will have to wait and see.
Any heavy commodity exporter experiences what is known as “Dutch disease”, where most of the sectors of the economy are depressed at the expense of exporting commodities. When commodities run out, the countries usually experience reverse Dutch disease, which results in rapid development of non-commodity sectors. There are countless examples of this, Netherlands being a good example after which the Dutch disease is named.
Another good example is California. Originally the economy of California was based on exporting gold during the Gold rush in Silicon Valley. However, when gold ran out, other capital intensive areas started developing rapidly such as railroads, or Hollywood. Later on, during World War 2, defense industry became a big theme, after the war ended a lot of those companies repurposed themselves into tech producing companies, which is the current Silicon Valley as we know it.
Capital generated from commodity exports played a crucial role in this transformation.
In summary, when and if oil runs out in Azerbaijan, it will result in a massive transformation and flourishing of their economy via the reverse Dutch disease effect.