> Four potential security scenarios for the Black Sea region can be envisioned for the next decade: Lake Interregnum; Russian Lake; European Lake; and Lake Glacialis (or ‘Frozen Lake’).
> 1. Lake Interregnum is a ‘standard projection’ representing the continuation of the current situation. In this scenario the Black Sea remains a a theatre of the unresolved confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, and by extension ‘the collective West’. Regional security mechanisms remain impotent, making all forms of security, including of maritime navigation and infrastructure, highly precarious and dependent on the current balance of power, with a constant risk of Russia’s ‘grey zone’ aggression.
> 2. Russian Lake is a dystopian scenario. It envisions Russia’s aggressive advances on multiple fronts – through a successful offensive in southern Ukraine, skilful manipulation of domestic politics in Moldova and Georgia, and potentially pressuring Türkiye to reopen the Straits while at the same time deterring the entry of NATO’s forces. This would restore Russia’s naval power, and might lead to a shift in the current relationship between Türkiye and Russia. This scenario would essentially recreate a Cold War dynamic, with Russia controlling most of the Black Sea coastline as it did during the Soviet era, even if Romania and Bulgaria would now find themselves on the other side of the new ‘Iron Curtain’.
> 3. European Lake, in contrast, is an optimistic scenario in which all littoral states except Russia are either EU Member States, close to accession or at least gravitating towards the EU. This could even include Türkiye – formally still a candidate state. Ukraine regains control of Crimea which ceases to be Russia’s strategic bastion. NATO and the EU manage to field denial and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities to secure Black Sea navigation and critical infrastructure (including platforms and undersea cables). This unlocks the potential of regional cooperation, yielding gains from increased prosperity and connectivity.
> 4. Finally, Lake Glacialis depicts a potential stalemate scenario. It would follow an escalation to a regional war into which NATO would inevitably be drawn. This outcome would resemble a new Cold War standoff, fracturing the region politically. However, a new form of pragmatic security management might emerge – perhaps as part of a broader reconstituted European security architecture. The specific form that this might take would depend on the outcome of the war and could range from measures to prevent escalation to arms control and even demilitarisation. While the likelihood of a regional war should not be overestimated, given the Kremlin’s revisionist ambitions and the militarisation of the Black Sea region it is a possibility that should not be ruled out.
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Direct link to the brief: https://www.iss.europa.eu/sites/default/files/EUISSFiles/Brief_2024-13_Black-Sea_web.pdf
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> Four potential security scenarios for the Black Sea region can be envisioned for the next decade: Lake Interregnum; Russian Lake; European Lake; and Lake Glacialis (or ‘Frozen Lake’).
> 1. Lake Interregnum is a ‘standard projection’ representing the continuation of the current situation. In this scenario the Black Sea remains a a theatre of the unresolved confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, and by extension ‘the collective West’. Regional security mechanisms remain impotent, making all forms of security, including of maritime navigation and infrastructure, highly precarious and dependent on the current balance of power, with a constant risk of Russia’s ‘grey zone’ aggression.
> 2. Russian Lake is a dystopian scenario. It envisions Russia’s aggressive advances on multiple fronts – through a successful offensive in southern Ukraine, skilful manipulation of domestic politics in Moldova and Georgia, and potentially pressuring Türkiye to reopen the Straits while at the same time deterring the entry of NATO’s forces. This would restore Russia’s naval power, and might lead to a shift in the current relationship between Türkiye and Russia. This scenario would essentially recreate a Cold War dynamic, with Russia controlling most of the Black Sea coastline as it did during the Soviet era, even if Romania and Bulgaria would now find themselves on the other side of the new ‘Iron Curtain’.
> 3. European Lake, in contrast, is an optimistic scenario in which all littoral states except Russia are either EU Member States, close to accession or at least gravitating towards the EU. This could even include Türkiye – formally still a candidate state. Ukraine regains control of Crimea which ceases to be Russia’s strategic bastion. NATO and the EU manage to field denial and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities to secure Black Sea navigation and critical infrastructure (including platforms and undersea cables). This unlocks the potential of regional cooperation, yielding gains from increased prosperity and connectivity.
> 4. Finally, Lake Glacialis depicts a potential stalemate scenario. It would follow an escalation to a regional war into which NATO would inevitably be drawn. This outcome would resemble a new Cold War standoff, fracturing the region politically. However, a new form of pragmatic security management might emerge – perhaps as part of a broader reconstituted European security architecture. The specific form that this might take would depend on the outcome of the war and could range from measures to prevent escalation to arms control and even demilitarisation. While the likelihood of a regional war should not be overestimated, given the Kremlin’s revisionist ambitions and the militarisation of the Black Sea region it is a possibility that should not be ruled out.